[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Steel Tender Prices Better Than Expectations, Market Sentiment Shows Signs of Recovery

On November 21, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,900-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,000-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price was 8,100-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM. For imported ferrochrome, the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM.

This week, the ferrochrome market stabilized after a decline. Tsingshan's December steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome decreased slightly by 100 yuan to 8,395 yuan/mt (50% metal content), significantly better than the previously expected decline of 300-500 yuan, supporting stable ferrochrome prices. Inquiry activity increased, and the market is currently digesting sentiment, with actual transactions to be seen next week. The supply and demand of ferrochrome are expected to maintain a tight balance. Supply side, low import volumes offset high domestic production, leading to an overall looser trend. Overseas ferrochrome plants experienced significant shutdowns. Glencore-Merafe recently announced plans to implement staff reductions at two of its ferrochrome plants, and import volumes are expected to remain low in the short term. Meanwhile, stimulated by retained profits, domestic ferrochrome producers are actively operating, with new capacity gradually coming online, effectively filling the production gap caused by cuts in south China. The ferrochrome production schedule fluctuated at highs. Downstream, the stainless steel market entered the year-end off-season, with weak end-use demand and declining prices. However, the current extent of production cuts is limited, providing rigid demand support for ferrochrome procurement. Ferrochrome prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, influenced by steel mill tenders.

Raw material side, on November 21, 2025, the spot price for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin Port was 52.5-53.5 yuan/mtu; the price for 40-42% South African raw ore was 48-49 yuan/mtu; the price for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was 53.5-54 yuan/mtu; the price for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 54.5-55.5 yuan/mtu; the price for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 57-59 yuan/mtu; the price for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder was 63-64 yuan/mtu, all flat MoM. For futures, the offer price for 40-42% South African concentrate was lowered to $270-274/mt.

This week, chrome ore futures and spot prices continued to decline, with weak downstream purchasing leading to a stalemate. Subsequently, boosted by the slight decrease in steel mill tender prices, inquiry demand was released, and the market is mostly waiting for next week's transaction performance. Port inventory continued to fluctuate at highs, and traders faced persistent pressure to sell. The spot price for South African concentrate has exceeded 54 yuan/mtu, higher than the purchase cost, resulting in widespread price inversions. Meanwhile, offers for Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore are gradually approaching, squeezing the price space for South African concentrate, and the market is mostly watching the future trend. At the futures level, the latest offers for the most-traded South African fines from overseas miners dropped by $5 to $270/mt. Although domestic traders' bearish expectations have somewhat diminished due to the slight decline in steel tenders, purchase willingness remains relatively weak under high port inventory pressure, resulting in sluggish futures trading. High planned production of ferrochrome provides some support for chrome ore, but the contradiction between oversupply and weak demand is difficult to resolve in the short term, leaving the chrome ore market in a wait-and-see mode.